Skip to content

PISA 2022

Pupils working in the classroom

The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is the world’s largest international education study carried out by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Every three years, a representative sample of 15-year-old pupils from schools in participating countries are tested on their ability to use their reading, mathematics and science in real-life challenges. During each cycle, PISA focuses on one of these three domains in greater detail. During the latest cycle of assessments, conducted late in the autumn term 2022, the major domain was mathematics. To enable detailed analysis of the assessment outcomes, pupils were also asked questions about their school experience and wider life.

Wales has been part of the PISA study since 2006. In 2022, a sample made up of 2,568 pupils from 89 schools, representing 7% of all 15-year-olds in Wales, completed the 2-hour computer-based assessment and the learner questionnaire. Over 97% of the learners taking part in the assessments in Wales were in publicly run schools compared to an average of 83% of learners across the OECD countries. Since the previous cycle of assessments in 2018, the performance of pupils in Wales undertaking the assessments in mathematics, reading, and science in 2022 fell by more than the OECD average. In 2022, the performance of Welsh pupils in mathematics, reading and science were significantly lower than the corresponding OECD averages (Ingram et al, 2023; OECD, 2023).

Mathematics

The performance of Welsh pupils in PISA’s mathematics assessments had increased substantially between 2012 and 2018, leading to a narrowing of the gap between Wales and the rest of the UK. However, the gap once again widened in 2022. In 2022, Wales’s overall mean average score in mathematics was 466. This was significantly lower than the OECD average of 472. In 2018, Wales’s performance was close to the OECD average, and close to the score of Scotland and Northern Ireland. While there was an average fall of 15 points in the trend average of OECD countries between 2018 and 2022, Wales’s performance had fallen by 21 points.

The PISA describes pupil performance using six proficiency levels, with proficiency level 6 being the most challenging and level 2 being considered a basic proficiency in that domain.

Percentage achieving different proficiency levels in mathematics, 2022

The proportion of pupils in Wales who achieved a basic proficiency of level 2 or higher in mathematics fell substantially between 2018 and 2022, from 79% to 68%. In 2018, Wales had a higher percentage of pupils that had a basic proficiency of level 2 or higher in mathematics than the OECD average, but in 2022 the proportion was in line with that of the OECD.

The performance of middle ability pupils followed a similar trend, with the percentage of pupils achieving proficiency level 3 or above falling from 53% in 2018 to 42% in 2022. In 2018, the proportion of pupils achieving proficiency level 3 or above was in line with the OECD average, but in 2022 this proportion had fallen to be four percentage points below the OECD average.

In 2022, there was a slight decrease in the percentage of pupils in Wales who achieved proficiency level 5 or above in mathematics. Six per cent of pupils in Wales achieved this level, which remained lower than the OECD average of nine per cent. In Wales, boys outperformed girls significantly by nine points in 2022, with boys achieving a score of 470 and girls 461. There was also a gap of nine points between the OECD averages for boys and girls in 2022. In 2018, boys outperformed girls by only two points in Wales.

In Estyn’s Annual Report for 2021-2022, we stated that, in the majority of secondary schools, shortcomings in provision meant that pupils did not develop their numeracy skills well enough across the curriculum (Estyn, 2023a). During the 2022-2023 academic year, our inspectors noted that the teaching of mathematics and numeracy was ineffective in a large minority of lessons, with too much emphasis on procedural fluency and insufficient focus on developing pupils’ mathematical proficiencies. This was reflected in the weak performance of Welsh pupils in the mathematics element of PISA 2022. In our interactions with school leaders, one of their biggest concerns continues to be the recruitment of specialist mathematics teachers (Welsh Government, 2023).

In 2022, mathematics was the major domain of the PISA assessments. Information is therefore available on performance in mathematics in different subscales. Mathematical literacy was assessed in relation to four content categories, these were: change and relationship; quantity; space and shape; uncertainty and data.

Performance in the mathematics content subdomains, 2022

Pupils in Wales performed significantly lower than the OECD averages in each of the change and relationship, quantity, and space and shape content categories, but performed better than their counterparts in other OECD countries in the uncertainty and data category.

Our inspection of secondary schools during 2022-2023 found that pupils were given valuable opportunities to develop their understanding of matters relating to data analysis, and graphs in particular. However, opportunities for pupils to develop other numeracy skills, such as their understanding of number and matters related to shapes and measures, and their ability to solve problems in real-life contexts, are generally underdeveloped across secondary schools in Wales.

Science

In 2022, Wales’s overall mean average score in science was 473. This was significantly lower than the OECD average of 485. In 2018, Wales’s performance was close to the OECD average. However, while there had been an average fall of two points in the trend average of OECD countries between 2018 and 2022, Wales’s performance had fallen by 15 points, a significant decrease. Despite a slight increase between 2015 and 2018, the science scores of pupils in Wales have generally followed a downward trend since Wales first participated in the PISA study in 2006.

Overall, each of the UK nations saw a fall in their performance between 2018 and 2022. However, the decrease in Wales’s score was substantially bigger than for each of the other UK nations.

The proportion of pupils who achieved a basic proficiency of level 2 or higher in science fell substantially between 2018 and 2022, from 81% to 74%. For the same period, the corresponding proportion for the OECD fell by only two percentage points. The performance of middle ability pupils followed a similar trend, with the percentage of pupils achieving proficiency level 3 or above in Wales falling from 52% in 2018 to 44% in 2022, while the corresponding OECD average fell by only two percentage points.

Percentage achieving different proficiency levels in science, 2022

In 2022, there was a slight increase in the percentage of pupils in Wales who achieved proficiency at level 5 or above in science. Six per cent of pupils in Wales achieved this level, which is close to the OECD average of seven per cent.

The weak performance of Welsh pupils in the science element of the PISA assessments reflects Estyn’s conclusions in the 2017 thematic report on science at Key Stages 3 and 4 (Estyn, 2017), where we stated that, while teaching was better at Key Stage 4, pupils only made good progress in about half of lessons in Key Stage 3. In a minority of primary schools, pupils do not develop their scientific knowledge and understanding well enough. In addition, schools in Wales have recently found the recruitment of specialist science teachers to be a particular challenge, especially for physics and chemistry (Welsh Government, 2023).

With the exception of 2018, boys in Wales have always outperformed girls in PISA’s science assessments. This was the case again in 2022, with boys outperforming girls by seven points, although this gap in performance was not significant. This was similar to the picture across the rest of the UK with boys having, on average, higher scores than girls, although this differs from the average for the OECD where there is no difference between the performance of boys and girls.

Reading

In 2022, Wales’s overall mean average score for reading was 466. This was significantly lower than the OECD average of 476. Between 2015 and 2018, Wales’s performance improved and the gap between the performance of Wales and the OECD average narrowed. However, between 2018 and 2022, Wales’s performance in reading fell more than in the other UK nations and the OECD average. This left the performance of Wales’s pupils significantly below the OECD average and substantially lower than the averages for the rest of the UK.

The proportion of pupils who achieved a basic proficiency of level 2 or higher in reading fell substantially between 2018 and 2022, from 78% to 71%. In 2018, Wales had a similar proportion of pupils that had basic proficiency of level 2 or higher in reading to the OECD counties overall, but in 2022 the proportion was three percentage points lower. The performance of middle ability pupils, as measured by the percentage achieving proficiency level 3 or above, also fell, from 52% to 44%. It remained below the OECD figure of 49%. There was also a decrease from seven per cent to five per cent in the percentage of pupils in Wales who achieved proficiency level 5 or above in reading. The corresponding OECD figure fell by one percentage point to seven per cent.

Percentage achieving different proficiency levels in reading, 2022

Our thematic on ‘Developing pupils’ English reading skills from 10-14 years of age’ and our inspection reports recognised that, although the pandemic had a negative impact on pupils’ reading skills, only a few secondary schools had developed a culture of reading where reading for pleasure was a priority alongside reading to learn (Estyn, 2023b). The support of senior leaders was essential for this to happen. Very few school clusters planned effectively for the progressive development of pupils’ reading skills from Year 6 into Year 7. Only a minority of secondary schools provided regular opportunities for pupils to develop reading skills across the curriculum or monitored and evaluated the impact of these opportunities rigorously enough. In general, primary school teachers focused suitably on developing pupils’ reading skills, although in secondary schools the focus was mostly upon subject knowledge, understanding and skills.

Similar to previous PISA assessments, girls’ performance in reading (475 in 2022), was significantly higher than that of boys (456). The extent of the gap in the performance of boys and girls was generally similar to the gap seen in other OECD countries and the other UK nations.

References

Estyn (2017) Science at key stage 3 and key stage 4. Cardiff: Estyn. [Online]. Available from: https://www.estyn.gov.wales/system/files/2020-07/Science%2520at%2520key%2520stage%25203%2520and%2520key%2520stage%25204%2520%2528002%2529.pdf [Accessed 14 December 2023]

Estyn (2023a) HMCI Annual Report 2021-2022. Cardiff: Estyn. [Online]. Available from: https://www.estyn.gov.wales/system/files/2023-10/Estyn-HMCI-Annual-Report-2021-2022-A1.pdf [Accessed 14 December 2023]

Estyn (2023b) Developing pupils’ English reading skills from 10-14 years of age. Cardiff: Estyn. [Online]. Available from: https://www.estyn.gov.wales/system/files/2023-05/Developing%20pupils%E2%80%99%20English%20reading%20skills%20from%2010-14%20years%20of%20age.pdf [Accessed 14 December 2023]

Ingram, J., Stiff, J., Cadwallader, S., Lee, G., Kayton, H. (2023) PISA 2022: National Report for Wales: Research Report. Cardiff: Welsh Government. [Online]. Available from: https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/statistics-and-research/2023-12/pisa-2022-national-report-wales-059.pdf [Accessed 19 December 2023]

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2023) PISA 2022 Results (Volume I): The State of Learning and Equity in Education. OECD Publishing: Paris. [Online]. Available from: 53f23881-en.pdf (oecd-ilibrary.org) [Accessed 8 January 2024]

Welsh Government (2023) First years on secondary school ITE courses in Wales by subject and year. Cardiff: StatsWales [Online]. Available from: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Education-and-Skills/Post-16-Education-and-Training/Higher-Education/Initial-Teacher-Training-ITT/students-in-Wales/FirstyearsonITEcoursesinWales-by-subject-year [Accessed 14 December 2023]